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Trump Disqualification and Setting Your Expectations

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Trump Disqualification and Setting Your Expectations

We’re now waiting to see when — almost certainly when — the Supreme Court will take up ex-President Trump’s appeal of Colorado’s decision to strike his name from the presidential ballot. As we’ve noted, there are many unknowns about just how the Court might respond, though it seems almost inconceivable that the Court won’t make a decision which forces Trump’s name back on the ballot.

But let’s at least consider the possibility that it doesn’t, that the Court allows Colorado and presumably Maine to keep Trump off the ballot. What then? Does this really have practical significance for the 2024 election?

One reader asked me this question this morning: “Doesn’t that mean if SCOTUS completely rules against trump, it will still be a state by state effort to get him off the ballot? Each state will make its own determination if Trump engaged in insurrection. So even if Trump loses, he theoretically could still be on enough states ballots to win 270? Then what?”

That’s precisely right. Or, rather, the answer to the implicit question. Then what? … Nothing.

In theory the Court could I guess decide that Trump did participate in an insurrection, though they’re not being asked to do that and it is truly beyond any reasonable possibility that they would. But if they allow Colorado’s decision to stand (close to inconceivable but possible) that only affects Colorado and likely Maine — though the specifics of the decision might impact the two states differently.

The relevant point here is that it is very unlikely to impact the result of the election for the simple reason that it is blue states — which will be in Biden’s tally — that are the ones who are likely to do this. Maybe Massachusetts will do this; Texas won’t do this.

In these terms, Colorado isn’t that far off from being Massachusetts.

Where it conceivably gets more complicated is the handful of purple states where the make up of high courts or identities of secretaries of state might complicate the equation.

Michigan was the ground zero state for this possibility. It’s a critical swing state now under unified Democratic control. But the relevant Michigan authorities have already rejected the idea. Maine could conceivably be significant since it assigns electoral votes by district and one of its two districts is fairly Trumpy.

But for anyone asking this question, the key point is that this is largely about removing Trump’s name from the ballot in states he had no chance of winning. There are some edge cases where it could conceivably have an impact. But not many. This doesn’t get into the rights or wrongs of it, the constitutional niceties. I just note this as a matter of expectations setting.



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